Was Your Vote Counted?

This visualization explains how official Georgian election results from the CEC contains many errors.

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until you get to the end of the story.

37,148

errors

7,863

errors

For both Proportional and Majoritarian elections

in 2012

there are a total of

45,011

validation errors.

What Are Validation Errors?

Validation errors occur when the following equations are true:

Sum(Party Votes) < Ballots Signed For - Invalid Ballots

Sum(Party Votes) > Ballots Signed For - Invalid Ballots

Errors found in 2012 elections:

10,914 in polling station protocols

34,097 in CEC Database

How Did This Happen?

How Voting Works in Georgia

Where Can Problems Occur?

Problem - Election Code & Special Precincts

Problem - Local and International Election Monitors

Problem - Polling Station Ballot Miscounts

Election Code and Special Polling Stations

A special polling station is for a facility like

military base

prison

hospital

Votes from special polling stations are merged into a parent polling station

parent polling station

In an election, there is no way to properly know how many ballots are submitted from a special polling station compared to its parent polling station

A court order is needed to open up the official polling station documents

As a result of the merging of special polling stations into parent polling stations,
the 2012 Majoritarian election has

74 special polling stations whose voting results

cannot be properly verified

People Might Not Turn in Their Ballot

Polling Stations count the signatures of people who received ballots

NOT the total ballots put in the box

This means if a person signs for a ballot but does not put it in a box, the ballot is unaccounted for which makes it impossible to validate the election results

Local and International Election Monitors

Election monitors

frequently only focus on

legal violations

They often do

not ensure that the

data itself

is correct

Polling Station Miscount

Protocol Explanation

1 - Possible Voters
2 - Special Voters
3 - Votes by 12:00 and by 17:00
4 - Ballots Signed for
5 - Ballots to Hand out
Votes for Each Party
6 - Invalid Ballots Submitted
Signatures of Polling Station Staff

Vote Count Validation Example #1

To validate that the ballots are counted correctly, the following equation should be true:
(4 - Ballots Signed For)
-
(6 - Invalid Ballots Submitted)
=
SUM (Votes for Each Party)
Here is a protocol from Polling Station 1 in Gori. For this protocol, the equation turns into:
832 - 32
=
(4 + 277 + 11 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 6 + 495)

800
=
800
VALIDATION PASSED!

Vote Count Validation Example #2

Here is a protocol from Polling Station 63 in Gori. For this protocol, the equation turns into:
807 - 17
=
(1 + 1 + 301 + 4 + 28 + 1 + 9 + 12 + 362)

790
=
719
VALIDATION FAILED!
In this case,
there are more
ballots signed for
than there are
counted party
votes.
How did this happen?
Did 71 people sign for ballots but not turn them in?
Did the Polling Station Staff not count the ballots?
Did the ballots get lost?
Precincts With Validation Error

2012 Proportional Election

871 (23.88%)

2012 Majoritarian Election

1924 (53.76%)

Vote Count Validation Example #3

Here is a protocol from Polling Station 84 in Gori. For this protocol, the equation turns into:
728 - 13
=
(329 + 5 + 14 + 1 + 1 + 5 + 1 + 10 + 1 + 355)

715
=
722
VALIDATION FAILED!
In this case,
there are more
counted party votes
than there are
ballots signed
for.
How are there more
votes than ballots
submitted?
Precincts With Validation Error

2012 Proportional Election

18 (0.49%)

2012 Majoritarian Election

11 (0.31%)

Protocol Signatures

Keep in mind that
at the bottom of every
protocol
13 Polling
Station Staff have
signed off that the
protocol is properly
filled out.

CEC Data Entry Mistakes

The official data is entered into a database and is available from the CEC in a spreadsheet format.

Snapshot of the Spreadsheet for the Proportional Election Results

Screenshot of official CEC data in a spreadsheet format

The data that is being shown is for the ballots submitted by Georgians living overseas (district 87).

! Notice

The columns correspond directly with the data from the protocol except the spreadsheet

does not have a column to record the number of ballots on hand

Here is a protocol from Polling Station 27 (Athens, Greece) of the Overseas district.
On the right is a chart comparing
the numbers written on the protocol
and
the data in the spreadsheet:

District 87's Polling Station 27 official CEC data in spreadsheet format

Protocol for District 87's Polling Station 27

Possible Voters
Special Voters
Voters by 12:00
Voters by 17:00
Ballots Signed for
Ballots to Hand out
Invalid Ballots

What Mistakes Have Been Made?

Due to protocols having '0' typed in for Possible Voters, the Polling Station Staff filled in the Possible Voters under the Special Voters section
When the CEC entered the data, they started with the first hand-written number and did not notice that there was no number for Special Voters, instead entering the Votes by 12:00 number into Special Voters
Thus all remaining data in the top half of the protocol was entered incorrectly for each of the 46 polling stations in the Overseas district
Due to this data entry error, the validation equation previously explained would produce an error of 34,097

Overall, How Many Validation Errors Exist
in the 2012 Elections?

2012 Proportional System Election Validation Errors

The map shows the percent of polling stations in each district that have validation errors.

Choropleth map of Proportional Election Missing Ballots

0%
0-10%
10-30%
>30%
No Data

24.37%

889 out of 3,648

polling stations have

validation errors

72 out of 73

districts

have at least one polling

station with

validation errors

Districts with the largest validation error in one polling station:

196

Gori

Dmanisi

Khashuri

Districts with the highest percent of polling stations with validation errors:

47%

Nadzaladevi

43.8%

Saburtalo

43.2%

Khelvachauri

2012 Majoritarian Election Validation Errors

The map shows the percent of polling stations in each district that have validation errors.

Choropleth map of Majoritarian Election Missing Ballots

0%
0-10%
10-30%
>30%
No Data

54.07%

1,935 out of 3,579

polling stations have

validation errors*

All 73

districts

have at least one polling

station with

validation errors

* - 74 polling stations include special polling stations and cannot be validated

Districts with the largest validation error in one polling station:

208

Gori

Bolnisi

Nadzaladevi

Districts with the highest percent of polling stations with validation errors:

96.3%

Telavi

94.3%

Zestaponi

87.2%

Zugdidi

2012 District Validation Errors - Gori

Let's look at Gori as an example of what happened at the district level.

The map shows the size of the validation error in each polling station.

Proportional Election Choropleth map of Gori District Missing Ballots for both Proportional and Majoritarian Election

0 Errors
0-10 More Ballots Than Votes
10-30 More Ballots Than Votes
>30 More Ballots Than Votes
More Votes Than Ballots

Majoritarian Election Choropleth map of Gori District Missing Ballots for both Proportional and Majoritarian Election

49%

of all polling stations

have validation errors

in Proportional

Election

47%

of all polling stations

have validation errors

in Majoritarian

Election

Polling stations with the largest
validation error
in Proportional Election:

Polling stations with the largest
validation error
in Majoritarian Election:

196

#70

208

#70

#63

#83

#19

Did the presence of these validation errors affect
the overall results of the 2012 parliamentary election?

But that does not mean that
it will not affect the outcome
of future elections.

What Can Be Done to Fix
These Mistakes in Future Elections?

Election Code and Special Polling Stations

Special
Polling
Station

Record votes in a way that allows

for voting results to be properly verified.

Voting Results

Polling Stations

Properly train polling station staff on how to fill out the protocol

Require Polling Stations
to record ballot signatures Require Polling Stations to record ballot signatures

and the number of
ballots submitted Require Polling Stations to record number of ballots submitted

Include validation checks before the Protocol is submitted.

Validation Equation: Total Ballots Submitted
-
Invalid Ballots
=
SUM(Party Votes)

If validation errors are found, the ballots will be re-counted before the protocol can be submitted.

Local and International Election Monitors

Election monitors can validate:

The protocol has been properly completed

The numbers make sense (there aren't more votes than ballots)

The protocol the CEC receives is the same as the official one from the polling station

CEC Data Validation

Include validation checks when the CEC is entering the data.

Validation Equation: Total Ballots Submitted
-
Invalid Ballots
=
SUM(Party Votes)

The Polling Station results will be audited if validation errors in the protocol are found.

Will your vote be counted in 2013?

Probably.

But to get to 100% certainty,

changes need to be made.

Research and Designed by

Communicating Information Better

Sources:

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